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As Washington inches toward reopening the federal government after six weeks of paralysis, U.S. airlines are confronting the cost of disruption that could outlast the shutdown itself. Tens of thousands of flights have been canceled in recent days, throwing holiday travel plans — and carriers’ quarterly forecasts — into uncertainty.
The shutdown’s effects have rippled far beyond Capitol Hill. The Federal Aviation Administration, operating on limited staffing, has ordered progressive flight reductions at 40 major airports nationwide to safeguard safety protocols and manage strained operations. The cancellations surged from roughly 4,000 between October 1 and November 5 to more than 8,000 in the past four days alone, according to FlightAware data.
For airlines, the timing could hardly be worse. Thanksgiving travel season begins November 27, typically one of the most profitable periods of the year. Instead, carriers now face sluggish booking trends and mounting operational pressure. Aviation analytics firm Cirium reports that Thanksgiving bookings have grown by just 1% since late October — less than half the growth expected at the start of the quarter.
“Everybody in the industry is a little bit worried about the fourth quarter,” said Steve Johnson, chief strategy officer at American Airlines. His concern reflects a broader anxiety across the sector: that the shutdown’s financial drag could linger, even after the government reopens.
The Senate approved a measure Monday night to restore agency funding, and the House is expected to vote on the plan in the coming days. President Donald Trump has signaled support, saying he intends to sign the bill. Yet industry leaders warn that restoring full operations will take time. Staffing, maintenance, and regulatory oversight have all fallen behind.
Pilots and flight attendants have already reached federally mandated duty-time limits, forcing airlines to activate standby crews and offer premium pay to fill gaps. Delta and United Airlines confirmed they’ve expanded overtime and incentive programs to keep schedules intact. “What we do today matters because it’s going to influence how the rest of the month is going to pan out,” said Steve Olson, senior vice president of system operations at JetBlue.
Reserve crews — those on standby for emergencies — are now running thin. If that pool is exhausted, carriers could face cascading delays into Thanksgiving week, when nearly 30 million Americans are expected to travel by air. The FAA has not indicated when flight capacity limits will be lifted.
The disruptions have intensified financial pressures that were already mounting earlier in the year. Air ticket sales through U.S. travel agencies fell 10% in October from a year earlier, according to Airlines Reporting Corp. Delta and American previously estimated losses of up to $1 million per day from the shutdown, but analysts say that figure may now understate the damage.
Daniel McKenzie of Seaport Research Partners projects that the FAA’s 10% flight cut could cost the industry roughly $10 million per day in direct losses. If those cuts continue through Thanksgiving, the toll could rise to $45 million daily — not including foregone revenue from delayed or canceled trips.
Ultra-low-cost carriers such as Frontier and Allegiant face particular vulnerability, with fewer flights per route and limited capacity to rebook stranded passengers. By contrast, larger carriers like American, Delta, and United may recapture some of that lost traffic, benefiting from their broader networks and flexibility.
Still, even the biggest airlines are revising expectations. The shutdown has not only slowed bookings but also disrupted corporate travel, ground operations, and air traffic training schedules. Industry officials expect residual turbulence through December, even if the government reopens this week.
Airlines entered the final quarter of 2025 with optimism. After a slow start to the year amid inflation and trade uncertainty, demand had begun to rebound. That optimism now faces a hard reality: a public wary of travel disruption and a logistical ecosystem still catching up from weeks of undercapacity.
For travelers, the experience has become emblematic of Washington’s dysfunction. Terminals across the country have seen longer lines, delayed flights, and increasingly anxious passengers unsure whether their Thanksgiving journeys will proceed as planned.
Behind the numbers, the broader issue remains structural. The shutdown underscored the fragile interdependence between private industry and public infrastructure. Without sufficient air-traffic staffing, regulatory oversight, and maintenance coordination, even the world’s largest aviation market can falter in days.
The end of the shutdown may bring a measure of relief. But for America’s airlines, the flight path back to normalcy could prove longer, costlier, and far less predictable than expected.
